International - Financial Times - Credit Squeeze

As global economic uncertainty mounts, stockpiling is back

Berlin set to halve GDP growth forecast to 0.5% as surging energy prices blunt €1tn spending push

Higher oil prices may not be enough to dent the world’s biggest trade surplus

Energy and interior secretaries hold call with executives to encourage more production

US state department’s ‘trade over aid’ initiative draws criticism from non-profit sector

Alphaville’s Robin Wigglesworth and Toby Nangle replied to reader questions

Concerns over second-round inflation effects from Iran war are more muted than during 2022 energy shock

Our survey sees cuts at the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England on hold and the hikes at the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan this year

Also in today’s newsletter: Gulf states’ wartime borrowing and what went wrong at Goldman Sachs’ FICC division?

Grand bargain that has underpinned US Treasury demand since 1974 is coming undone

While the Chinese export surge continues unabated, import volumes have been anaemic

Plus, global imbalances and global crises

Exports and fiscal stimulus offset a still weak domestic economy in the first quarter

The sheer scale of the manufacturing superpower threatens to shut out south-east Asian rivals before they can rise

It may not be those hit first who experience the most pain if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed

Hormuz stand-off raises the stakes for Trump

Companies also reported a pause in hiring and investment decisions amid war uncertainties

Foreign sales could push up US petrol prices and increase political pressure on Trump administration to curtail exports

Threat comes as tensions rise between Washington and London over Iran war

Chicago Federal Reserve president Austan Goolsbee says public may ‘misinterpret’ price rises as persistent