International - Financial Times - Credit Squeeze

Stagflationary risks already evident in the US even before Iran war factored in

Revised figures show GDP rose at a 0.7% rate in fourth quarter, down from earlier reading of 1.4%

But if oil stays expensive . . . 

Also in today’s newsletter: US burns through ‘years’ of munition and new capital rules for big banks

Kaja Kallas says Washington seeks to pick apart European governments which wield less power individually

From Iran to private credit, things are unnerving but the wider financial system is better prepared

Investigations could lead to fresh levies after US Supreme Court struck down many of Trump’s tariffs

If renminbi settlement becomes cheaper and more trade migrates, firms will have less need to generate or hold US currency

Traders expect central bank to remain on hold until next summer in blow to Trump’s hopes for lower borrowing costs

Damage from the conflict is already having an impact on corporate strategy

Shortage of jobs a focus at rubber-stamp parliament even as government doubles down on high-tech sectors

Beijing and Moscow look to one another for energy and economic security amid geopolitical turbulence

Special bill will establish fund to put money into American industries as part of trade deal

Plus more on private credit and BDCs

Also in today’s newsletter: prediction that private credit default rates are set to rise and Oracle prepares to make AI-related lay-offs

Rate-setters will act so that medium-term expectations remain anchored

Despite China being a huge oil importer, US mismanagement will give Beijing the upper hand in upcoming talks

Imposing tariffs in response threatens to create a problem where none exists

It depends on its damage to the target, potential for blowback and durability

Will artificial intelligence mean more jobs, fewer jobs, or different jobs?